Live
TSMC Arizona78.4 ↑
Intel OhioAt Risk
Grid Queue Avg38 months
Eli Lilly LEAP92.1 ↑
Wolfspeed NCCritical ↓
Samsung TaylorPaused
Portfolio Updated2 min ago
Oracle StargateOn Track
TSMC Arizona78.4 ↑
Intel OhioAt Risk
Grid Queue Avg38 months
Eli Lilly LEAP92.1 ↑
Wolfspeed NCCritical ↓
Samsung TaylorPaused
Portfolio Updated2 min ago
Oracle StargateOn Track

Executive Summary

$1.3T
Capital Tracked
50
Projects Monitored
67.2
Portfolio Velocity
60%
At Risk or Worse

U.S. infrastructure investment faces elevated execution risk heading into 2026. While $1.3 trillion in capital has been committed across 50 major projects, only 40% are executing on track. The semiconductor sector is particularly stressed, with three of the largest CHIPS Act recipients facing significant delays or strategic uncertainty. Grid interconnection queues averaging 38 months threaten data center expansion timelines. Bright spots include pharmaceutical manufacturing, where GLP-1 demand is accelerating construction, battery cathode facilities benefiting from IRA incentives, and solar manufacturing expansion.

Primary Concern
CHIPS Act Execution
$8.5B Intel award at risk of clawback. Samsung and Wolfspeed funding not finalized. 35% of semiconductor CHIPS awards face uncertainty.
Emerging Risk
Grid Capacity
23 projects constrained by power interconnection. Data center expansion timelines at risk. Nuclear PPAs being explored as alternative.
Positive Signal
Pharma Execution
All 3 pharmaceutical projects on track. Eli Lilly LEAP ahead of schedule. $19B sector with 85.3 average velocity.
847K
Jobs Created
Economic Impact
847,000 jobs projected when portfolio projects reach full operation.
Arizona leads with $97.5B in committed investment and 11,000+ projected semiconductor jobs. Ohio and Texas follow as top beneficiaries of the infrastructure buildout.
Explore Full Analysis →
Economic
847K jobs
Infrastructure
60% constrained
Supply Chain
39+ suppliers
Policy
$52B allocated
Competitive
$500B Stargate
Sources: SEC filings, company announcements, CHIPS.gov, grid operator queues (PJM, ERCOT, CAISO, MISO)
View Methodology
Data Confidence:
High
! Developments Requiring Attention Week of December 29, 2025
Samsung Taylor: Equipment Installation Frozen
CHIPS: $6.4B
Building 92% complete but equipment installation stalled. Samsung conducting strategic review of all overseas foundry investments amid corporate restructuring.
Impact
$44B commitment uncertain. Stranded asset risk. No production timeline. CHIPS preliminary award in jeopardy.
Watch: Q1 2025 Samsung board decision on foundry business
View Full Analysis →
Intel Ohio: Timeline Slips to 2030-31
CHIPS: $8.5B
Production delayed 5-6 years from original 2025 target. Zero external foundry customers secured. 15,000 workforce reduction completed.
Impact
$8.5B CHIPS award at risk of clawback. Intel stock down 60% YTD. Ohio semiconductor workforce development stalled.
Watch: Q2 2025 CHIPS milestone review by Commerce Dept
View Full Analysis →
Wolfspeed NC: Post-Bankruptcy, CHIPS Uncertain
CHIPS: $750M
Emerged from Chapter 11 in September with 70% less debt. $750M CHIPS Act funding was preliminary only, never finalized. New administration status unclear.
Impact
U.S. silicon carbide supply chain gap. EV power electronics dependency on foreign sources. 1,800 jobs at risk.
Watch: Q1 2026 CHIPS funding decision from new administration
View Full Analysis →
Portfolio Health View All
$1.3T Total Capital
On Track 20 40%
At Risk 24 48%
Distressed 6 12%
Portfolio Velocity
67.2 -5.2 vs Q3
0 Distressed At Risk On Track 100
vs. Prior Quarter -5.2 pts Was 72.4 in Q3
vs. Year Ago -11.4 pts Was 78.6 in Dec 2024
Updated: Dec 30, 2025 10:30 EST 50 projects tracked
CHIPS Act Funding Status View Details
Total CHIPS Program $52B
$33.2B
$10.2B
$8.5B
Awarded & Finalized
Preliminary
At Risk
Recipients 12
Avg Award $4.3B
Clawback Risk $8.5B
vs. Q3 2025 +$3.2B at risk Intel added to risk
Program Progress 64% Of $52B allocated
Source: CHIPS.gov, Commerce Dept Last award: Oct 2024
Infrastructure Constraints View Analysis
23 Projects
Constrained
Grid Queue 38 mo avg
Power Demand 14.2 GW
Labor Gap 46% filled
7 Data Center
9 Semiconductor
5 Battery
2 Other
vs. Q3 2025 +5 projects Was 18 constrained
Queue Growth +8 mo YoY Was 30 mo avg
Source: PJM, ERCOT, CAISO, MISO queues Dec 2025 data
Sector Performance
Updated Dec 29, 2025 View All Sectors
Semiconductor
58.2 -8.4
$285B capital 7 2
Battery
67.4 -4.2
$48B capital 5 2
Data Center
64.8 -3.6
$881B capital 4 1
Automotive
55.2 -12.4
$47B capital 4 3
Pharmaceutical
85.3 +2.1
$19B capital All On Track
Solar
85.6 +1.4
$5.3B capital All On Track
Aggregated from 50 project-level assessments across 9 sectors
Top Improvers (30 Days) vs. Nov 29, 2025
1
Texas Instruments Sherman
Semiconductor
95.2
+8.4
2
Eli Lilly LEAP
Pharmaceutical
88.2
+5.4
3
Micron Idaho
Semiconductor
86.8
+4.1
3 projects improved by 5+ points this month
Biggest Declines (30 Days) vs. Nov 29, 2025
1
VinFast NC
Automotive
18.2
-15.8
2
Ford BlueOval MI
Automotive
46.8
-12.4
3
Plug Power Rochester
Hydrogen
24.8
-12.4
7 projects declined by 5+ points this month

Sector Status Matrix

Projects by sector and health status
On Track
At Risk
Distressed
Total
Semiconductor
1
7
2
10
Data Center
2
5
0
7
Battery
7
6
1
14
Automotive
2
4
3
9
Pharma
3
0
0
3
Solar
2
0
0
2
Other
3
2
0
5
Total
20
24
6
50
Concentration
Low
High

Geographic Distribution

Project density by state
West
8 $186B
Southwest
12 $652B
Midwest
11 $124B
Southeast
14 $198B
Northeast
5 $112B
Top States by Capital
Texas $584B 9 projects
Arizona $68B 4 projects
Ohio $42B 5 projects

Key Milestones Timeline

Completed Upcoming At Risk Delayed
Project
Jan 25 Feb 25 Mar 25 Apr 25 May 25 Jun 25 Jul 25 Aug 25 Sep 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25
TSMC Arizona First Silicon
H1 2025
Samsung Taylor Board Decision
Q1 2025
Intel Ohio CHIPS Review
Q2 2025
Texas Instruments Fab 2 Online
Q3 2025
Eli Lilly LEAP Phase 1 Complete
Q2 2025
Micron Idaho Groundbreaking
Done
Milestones from company filings and announcements 6 of 50 projects shown

Stock Exposure Index

Top 10 stocks with highest infrastructure project exposure
Full Analysis
Rank Company Related Projects Exposure Risk
1 Intel Corporation Intel Ohio, Intel Arizona
92%
 High
2 Taiwan Semiconductor TSMC Arizona
88%
 High
3 Samsung Electronics Samsung Taylor
85%
 High
4 Ford Motor Company BlueOval City, BlueOval MI
78%
 High
5 Oracle Corporation Stargate
72%
 Medium
6 NVIDIA Corporation Multiple DC projects
65%
 Medium
7 Apple Inc. TSMC Arizona, Apple DCs
58%
 Medium
8 Eli Lilly LEAP Indiana
45%
 Low
9 Micron Technology Micron Idaho, Micron NY
42%
 Low
10 Texas Instruments TI Sherman
38%
 Low
Exposure based on project capital, timeline risk, and company dependency View Shareholder Impact
Sector:
Status:
Project ↕ Sector ↕ Capital ↕ Velocity ↕ Status ↕
Intel Ohio CHIPS Milestone Review Approaching
Due: Q2 2025
Commerce Department will assess whether Intel has met required milestones for $8.5B award. Given 5-year timeline slip and zero foundry customers, clawback risk is elevated.
Semiconductor CHIPS Act $8.5B at risk
Samsung Taylor Strategic Decision Imminent
Expected: Q1 2025
Samsung board conducting strategic review of foundry business. Equipment installation frozen at 92%-complete Taylor facility. Exit from U.S. foundry market possible.
Semiconductor Corporate Strategy $44B commitment
TSMC Arizona First Silicon Target
Target: H1 2025
After 18-month delay, TSMC targeting first silicon production in H1 2025. Workforce challenges persist with hundreds of Taiwanese workers imported. Yield ramp risk elevated.
Semiconductor Production Apple supply chain
Stargate Funding Commitments Due
Expected: Q1 2025
Oracle/SoftBank/OpenAI $500B Stargate project announced without specific funding commitments. Partners expected to announce capital structure. Grid interconnection remains 36+ month queue.
Data Center Funding $500B announced
Plug Power Going Concern Warning
Status: Active
Auditors issued going concern warning. Cash burn exceeds $200M/quarter with no path to profitability. Rochester green hydrogen facility may not complete.
Hydrogen Financial Distress Bankruptcy risk

Analysis Tools

Shareholder Impact
View stock exposure analysis showing how infrastructure project delays and successes affect shareholder value.
Compare Projects
Select 2-4 projects for side-by-side comparison of velocity scores, timelines, risks, and key metrics.
Export Reports
Generate board-ready PDF reports for specific projects, sectors, or your entire watchlist.
Methodology
Understand how we calculate velocity scores, rate projects, and generate early warning signals.

Advanced Features

Pro
NEW
Scenario Modeling
Model "what-if" scenarios to understand how project delays could impact your portfolio or market position.
Earnings Calendar
Track upcoming earnings calls and investor days for companies with major infrastructure projects.
Peer Comparison
Benchmark projects against sector peers and industry averages for context on relative performance.
AI Weekly Summary
Get an AI-generated executive summary of the week's most important infrastructure developments.

API Access

Enterprise

Integrate HCC Velocity data directly into your investment systems and workflows

RESTful API JSON endpoints for all project data
Real-time Updates WebSocket feeds for instant alerts
Secure Access OAuth 2.0 authentication
Historical Data Full time-series back to 2024
Example Request 
curl -X GET "https://api.nxtvelocity.com/v1/projects" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json"

# Response
{
  "data": [
    {
      "id": "SE001",
      "name": "TSMC Arizona",
      "velocity_score": 72.4,
      "status": "at_risk",
      "updated_at": "2025-12-29T09:15:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "meta": { "total": 50, "page": 1 }
}
View Documentation

Custom Dashboards

Coming Soon

Create personalized views focused on your specific sectors, geographies, or watchlist. Save multiple configurations and switch between them instantly.

Semiconductor Focus
Texas Projects
High Risk Only
Create New

Velocity Scoring Methodology

Version 2.1 | Last Updated: December 2025

Overview

The HCC Velocity Score is a proprietary metric that quantifies infrastructure project execution health on a 0-100 scale. Higher scores indicate stronger execution and lower risk of delays or cost overruns. The methodology is designed to provide early warning signals before project issues become public knowledge.

Scoring Components

Component Weight Key Factors
Construction Progress 25% Milestones hit, timeline adherence, physical completion
Financial Health 25% Funding secured, cost overruns, company stability
Timeline Status 20% Original vs. current schedule, delay magnitude
Regulatory/Policy 15% Permits, CHIPS status, environmental approvals
Market Conditions 15% Demand outlook, competitive position, supply chain

Rating Scale

85-100 Strong Buy Exceptional execution, ahead of schedule
75-84 Buy On track, minor risks manageable
60-74 Hold Some delays, requires monitoring
45-59 Sell Significant issues, material delays
0-44 Strong Sell Distressed, project at risk

Data Sources

Primary Sources

  • SEC 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K filings
  • Company earnings calls and presentations
  • CHIPS.gov award announcements
  • State economic development filings

Grid Interconnection

  • PJM Interconnection Queue
  • ERCOT Interconnection Queue
  • CAISO Interconnection Queue
  • MISO, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE Queues

Supplementary

  • Construction permit filings
  • Environmental impact assessments
  • Labor market data (BLS)
  • Industry trade publications

Update Frequency

Real-time SEC filings, major announcements, breaking news
Weekly Grid queue positions, construction progress reports
Monthly Full score recalculation, methodology review
Quarterly Comprehensive project reassessment, peer benchmarking
Disclaimer: The HCC Velocity Score is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. All data should be independently verified before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Methodology subject to periodic refinement.

Active Alerts

CRITICAL
Samsung Taylor: Strategic Review
Equipment installation frozen. Board decision expected Q1 2025.
2 hours ago View Project
CRITICAL
Intel Ohio: CHIPS Review Approaching
Q2 2025 milestone review. $8.5B at risk of clawback.
1 day ago View Project
WARNING
TSMC Arizona: First Silicon Target
H1 2025 target approaching. Yield ramp risk elevated.
3 days ago View Project
View All Risks